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Wednesday April 13th

How to Profit Betting Baseball

Betting Major League Baseball through an entire season is a long grind and there are some basic rules I follow to ensure that I put myself in the best position to win each and every day.  Wether you are new to MLB betting or an experienced MLB bettor, here are some pointers and rules to follow.  These are rules in which I follow, everyone has a different approach, but by following these rules, you will be putting yourself in a great position to profit longterm.
     

      1. DO NOT BET BIG FAVOURITES ON THE MONEY LINE

One big mistake a lot of rookie MLB bettors do is lay massive prices with premium teams with premium pitches on the mound.  For example, its going to be very difficult to make money betting the Chicago Cubs this season (especially at home).  The cubs are sure to be -200 or bettor favourites in most of their home games this season.  It is very difficult to make money with these teams and these big favourites.  If you are always laying 2 units to win 1 (-200) you are going to need to win 2 out every 3 games in order to break even.  I would advise bettors to stay away from these massive favourites which I would consider to be -170 or higher.  Betting into these numbers may seem like a “sure thing” but trust me it isn’t and I challenge any bettor to show me a profitable season by betting these big favourites.  It just doesn’t happen.

 

      2.  LOOK TO PLAY UNDERDOGS AND SHORT FAVOURITES

This is the approach I use when betting baseball.  75% of my bets for the year will be on underdogs at a plus price.  Look for value with underdogs.  If you have two bets for one day, and one is +110 and one is +115, if you split the pair and go 1-1, you still end the day with a profit.  Shop around, find the best price you can and get in on underdogs with a plus price who are offering value.

 

      3. STARTING PITCHING IS OVERVALUED IN THE MARKETPLACE

If there is one thing you take from this article, please let it be this point.  In todays MLB marketplace there is way too much stock put into starting pitchers when setting betting lines.  Odds makers are well aware of the advance metrics that bettors are looking at and they price the games based nearly solely on starting pitching matchup.  There are so many other factors that should go into your handicap of a baseball game, the starting pitching is just one aspect of it.  However, oddsmakers and bettors are so enamoured with starting pitching that these lines can be very flawed.

 

      4.  PAY ATTENTION TO BULLPENS

The most overlooked part of a baseball handicap with bettors and line makers is bullpens.  I would argue that this just as important as the starting pitching match-ups.  Do your homework, see which bullpens are putting up good numbers.  Look for bullpens that have been overworked in recent games vs. bullpens that are rested.  Bullpens save and give away leads every single night, in every game, all season long.  Handicapping bullpens should be one of the first things you look at when handicapping an MLB game.

 

      5. IF YOU LIKE A BIG FAVOURITE, BET THE RUN LINE -1.5

This ties in with a lot of what has already been said.  If you like a favourite that is -150, -160, I would suggest that you should play them on the run line -1.5 and get a + price, +130/+140.  This will help you maximize your profits long term and just based on the math it is a smarter play.

 

    6.  TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DERIVATIVE MARKETS (Team Totals, First 5 innings)

I bet a lot of totals in the MLB, but more specifically I like to bet Team totals.  Here is an example:

 

-Blue Jays (Stroman pitching) are at home facing a fringe Left handed pitcher.  The game total is 8.5 -110.  My handicap tells me that the Jays are gong to crush, but they are laying -180 and the total is 8.5.  I don’t want to lay the -180 and I don’t want to bet the over 8.5 -110 because I think Stroman will shut down the opponent.  So what do i do?  Why not bet the Blue Jays team total over 4.5 runs.  This means that if the Jays score 5 runs I win my bet.  This way, Im still betting my handicap, and I’m avoiding getting beat on the over if the Jays win 5-1,5-2, 5-3, 6-1, 6-2.

This is a tremendous way to hone in and get a bet own on a particular matchup that you like.

 

I also like to bet teams on the First 5 innings line.  Essentially this means that whatever the score is heading into the top of the 6th inning is the score that will be used to grade your bet.  Why would you ever want to do such a thing? Well heres an example:

 

The Phillies are +200 playing the Mets on the road.  We fell the mets are overpriced based on the starting pitching matchup and we want to take advantage of this misplaced matchup.  However, we have been burnt by the horrible Phillies bullpen too many times and we don’t want to play the +200 on the Money Line.  So we take the First 5 innings line in the +175-+200 range instead and we take the Phillies bullpen out of the game entirely.  If the game is tied going into the 6th inning it is a push, if they are winning, you cash the ticket and don’t have to get angry when they allow 3 runs in the 8th and lose.

 

     7. CHECK THE WEATHER!

If you’re betting totals, be sure to check the weather at the stadiums before you bet the game.  Wind and weather is so crucial to betting MLB totals and sides for that matter.  This is something a lot of amateur bettors don’t even think about.  Do your weather research everyday.

 

    8. LOOK FOR STREAKS AND CURRENT FORM  

Baseball is a streaky game, teams and players go on streaks throughout the season.  I especially like to take advantage of this with teams who are constantly being priced as underdogs but keep cashing tickets.  A prime example of this was the Minnesota Twins after a few months last year.  They got off to a horrible start, then they got hot.  When they got hot, they kept being priced as the team that started the season poorly and kept cashing underdog ticket after underdog ticket.  Also look or hot hitting lineups.  In a day and age where so much stock is put into starting pitching, you can take advantage of betting on hot slugging lineups that usually aren’t being priced properly in the betting line.

 

     9.  MANAGE YOUR MONEY, BE PATIENT 

Develop a Unit system.  I use a 1, 1.5 & 2 unit betting system and I NEVER stray away from this.  You must set guidelines for yourself and follow it for the entire season.  If you don’t do this, you will mismanage your money and your chances of profiting long term is going to be very difficult.

Finally, the MLB has many games, everyday for 6-7 months!  Be patient, pick your spots, look for value, stay calm, manage your money and be prepared to find for the whole season.  Sports betting is not a get rich quick scheme and if you treat it as such your ass and wallet will be hurt by mid summer!

Best of luck this season, lets make some money and enjoy the season.

Sunday – April 10

MLB 2016 Predictions – Divisional Winners

American League East

The Blue Jays have arguably the most potent lineup in all of baseball top to bottom. They have power up and down the line-up as well as tremendous patience at the plate. They take pitches and wear down starting pitchers as well as any team in the majors. Defensively this team is underrated in my mind. Donaldson, Tu-lo and Goins are a tremendous trio in the middle infield. In the outfield Kevin Pillar mans centre field as good as anyone in the American League. Flanked by Bautista and Saunders the outfield should be solid as a whole. Russell Martin behind the plate provides everyday stability, leadership and a cannon arm. Thole will serve as a solid back-up and is very important for days where he will catch Dickey’s knuckleball, giving Martin the well needed rest. The bullpen looks to be very solid this year with Cecil, Ozuna the addition of Storen. The only worry I have for this team is if the starting pitching can hold its own over 162 games. Stroman has proved that he can be the ace of this pitching staff. Where I do have my concerns is with Dickey. I’ve never been a huge fan of the knuckleballer and I worry about his age and ability to withstand another full season grind. I also worry about Sanchez and his inexperience. We will have to wait and see if he can hold his own as a starting pitcher in a division which can be awfully difficult for young pitchers to navigate their way through. Happ and Estrada should serve as solid and consistent starters that will give you 6 solid innings and should be able to limit damage from other potent lineups in this division.

In a division filled with power bats and teams that play a similar style of baseball (with exception to Tampa Bay) I think the Jays are favourite to win this division for the second year in a row. This team had their run last year and now they are back for a second round with that newly aquired experience and fan support behind them. If the starting pitching can hold up I think this team is the overall American League favourite, right there with Kansas City.